New Home Sales Surge

New single-family home sales in December rose to their highest level in eight months and prices were the highest since April 2008, raising cautious optimism for a housing market recovery.

The Commerce Department said sales jumped 17.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted 329,000 unit annual rate after a downwardly revised 280,000-unit pace in November. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales rising to a 300,000-unit pace in December from a previously reported 290,000 unit rate. Compared to December a year earlier, sales were down 7.6 percent. Overall 2010 sales dropped 14.4 percent to a 321,000-unit rate.

Economists saw the gains as significant.

"Clearly we are seeing stabilization in new home sales and this data suggests some upward momentum that we have seen in existing home sales. What is important to realize is even in a period of softer new home sales, inventory continues to decline, said Dean Maki, chief U.S.. economist with Barclays Capital in New York.

“The level of inventory is at its lowest since the 1960s," Maki said. This suggests the big declines in housing starts are now behind us and housing starts should be on a gradual trend in 2011.”

Brian Bethune, an economist with HIS Global Insight in Lexington, Mass added: "It's meaningful to the extent that there is a pattern of numbers showing increases. It's a sign that there is a turnaround. Things are definitely perking up, but there is a question whether it's sustainable.

Read the latest report from the National Association of REALTORS®: December Existing-Home Sales Jump

Source: "New Home Sales Surge in December," Reuters(Jan. 26, 2011)





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December Existing-Home Sales Jump

Existing-home sales rose sharply in December, when sales increased for the fifth time in the past six months, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 12.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.28 million in December from an upwardly revised 4.70 million in November, but remain 2.9 percent below the 5.44 million pace in December 2009.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said sales are on an uptrend. “December was a good finish to 2010, when sales fluctuate more than normal. The pattern over the past six months is clearly showing a recovery,” he said. “The December pace is near the volume we’re expecting for 2011, so the market is getting much closer to an adequate, sustainable level. The recovery will likely continue as job growth gains momentum and rising rents encourage more renters into ownership while exceptional affordability conditions remain.”

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $168,800 in December, which is 1.0 percent below December 2009. Distressed homes rose to a 36 percent market share in December from 33 percent in November, and 32 percent in December 2009.

“The modest rise in distressed sales, which typically are discounted 10 to 15 percent relative to traditional homes, dampened the median price in December, but the flat price trend continues,” Yun explained.

Inventory Levels

Total housing inventory at the end of December fell 4.2 percent to 3.56 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.1-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 9.5-month supply in November.

NAR President Ron Phipps said buyers are responding to very good affordability conditions despite tight mortgage credit. “Historically low mortgage interest rates, stable home prices, and pent-up demand are drawing home buyers into the market,” Phipps said. “Recent home buyers have been successful with very low default rates, given the outstanding performance for loans originated in 2009 and 2010.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.71 percent in December from 4.30 percent in November; the rate was 4.93 percent in December 2009.

Transaction Types

A parallel NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 33 percent of homes in December, up from 32 percent in November, but are below a 43 percent share in December 2009.

Investors accounted for 20 percent of transactions in December, up from 19 percent in November and 15 percent in December 2009; the balance of sales were to repeat buyers. All-cash sales were at 29 percent in December, compared with 31 percent in November, but up from 22 percent a year ago. “All-cash sales have been consistently high at about 30 percent of the market over the past six months,” Yun said.

Single-family home sales jumped 11.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.64 million in December from 4.15 million in November, but are 2.5 percent below the 4.76 million level in December 2009. The median existing single-family home price was $169,300 in December, down 0.2 percent from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales surged 16.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 640,000 in December from 550,000 in November, but remain 5.2 percent below the 675,000-unit pace one year ago. The median existing condo price was $165,000 in December, which is 7.4 percent below December 2009.

Performance by Region

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 13.0 percent to an annual pace of 870,000 in December but are 5.4 percent below December 2009. The median price in the Northeast was $237,300, which is 1.4 percent below a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 11.0 percent in December to a level of 1.11 million but are 4.3 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $139,700, up 3.3 percent from December 2009.

In the South, existing-home sales increased 10.1 percent to an annual pace of 1.97 million in December but are 2.5 percent below December 2009. The median price in the South was $148,400, unchanged from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West surged 16.7 percent to an annual level of 1.33 million in December but remain 1.5 percent below December 2009. The median price in the West was $204,000, down 5.6 percent from a year ago.

— National Association of Realtors (NAR), January/2011

Vacation Homes Emerge as Hot Market

Vacation communities across the United States are showing big signs of a rebounding real estate market, reporting soaring sales at levels that have not been been seen since the days of the housing boom, The Wall Street Journal reports.
The increase has been driven by deep discounts and cash purchases, analysts say.

"We haven't felt energy like this in a long time. Buyers sense that they've been on the sidelines long enough," says

Ned Monell, a real estate professional with Sotheby’s International Realty in Palm Beach, Fla. Palm Beach posted a nearly 40 percent annual increase and a 54 percent increase in homes under contract.

The following is a sampling of vacation-home communities that saw an increase last year (percentage is the increase in home sales from 2009 to 2010):
▪ Barnstable County, Cape Cod, Mass.: 9 percent
▪ Hilton Head, S.C.: 13.6 percent
▪ Mercer Island, Wash. (waterfront): 181.8 percent
▪ Palm Beach, Fla.: 39.3 percent

National Association of REALTORS® Chief Economist Lawrence Yun attributes the increase to gains in the stock market and an overall improving economy. He says prices in these areas have come down so much that there’s been high demand for these properties among buyers, particularly in areas with stable labor markets.

Source: “Market for Vacation Homes Is On the Rise,” The Wall Street Journal (Jan. 10, 2011)

Where Foreign Investors Want to Buy

Where Foreign Investors Want to Buy

New York is expected to be the favorite city for foreign real estate investments in the U.S. and globally in 2011, according to an annual survey of members of the Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate. Washington, D.C., came in No. 2 both within the U.S. and global markets for cities where foreign investors most want to invest in the new year.

More than 72 percent of the association members say they plan to invest more money in U.S. real estate this year than in 2010.

“As the fear of a double-dip recession has faded, investors are becoming more enthusiastic about the prospects for the U.S. economy and are taking aim at real estate investment opportunities,” says James Fetgatter, AFIRE executive director. “However their strategy is more akin to a rifle than a shotgun. Except for multi-family housing, they are not scattering their interest throughout the U.S., but rather narrowly targeting it to New York City and Washington, D.C., to an even greater extent than in previous years.”
The top U.S. city picks among foreign real estate investors in 2011 are:

1. New York
2. Washington, D.C.
3. Boston
4. San Francisco
5. Los Angeles

Source: “D.C. Real Estate No. 2 With Foreign Investors,” Washington Business Journal (Jan. 3, 2011)