Home Prices Could Rise 12.4 Percent by 2014

May 19, 2010
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Housing Prices Could Rise 12.4 Percent by 2014

Housing prices are expected to increase 12.4 percent between 2010 and the end of 2014, predicts MacroMarkets, which surveyed more than 100 analysts and market strategists.

Those interviewed didn’t all see the housing market in the same light. Joseph LaVorgna, a economist at Deutsche Bank predicts that home prices will rise 37 percent by the end of 2014.

On the most bearish end, both Anthony Sanders, professor of real estate finance at George Mason University, and investment adviser Gary Shilling, president of A.Gary Shilling & Co., expect prices will decline 18 percent.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, James R. Hagerty (05/19/2010)

Fed Researchers Predict Speedy Economic Recovery

Fed Researchers Predict Speedy Economic Recovery 
The U.S. economy is likely to recover more quickly after this recession than it did after the previous two recessions, predicts researchers for the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

"I see no signs of a double dip," said John C. Williams, director of research at the San Francisco Fed. "The economy continues to gain momentum, and consumer spending and business investment continue to improve."

The prediction goes counter to what many analysts believe, but Williams pointed to surveys that show home, car, and retail sales are up. "It's kind of a natural part of the process — you cut back for a couple of years, and then you need to replace things eventually," Williams said.

Source: Los Angeles Times, Alana Semuels (05/18/2010)

Laguna Beach Homebuying up 129% over year

Laguna Beach homebuying up 129% over year


For the 22 business days ending April 27 – DataQuick’s freshest stats — Laguna Beach homebuying patterns showed:

Homebuying +129% vs. a year ago.

Laguna Beach’s median selling price was $1,162,500 – that’s +167% vs. countywide pricing.

A year ago, that Laguna Beach home-price “premium” was 141% vs. the countywide median selling price.

For a detailed report on countywide price moves,call Gil Thibault at 949-275-5900

Here’s a look at how Laguna Beach compares to all Orange County beach town trends and countywide totals for homebuying and median selling prices:

Town Median price Year’s chg. Sales Year’s chg.

Laguna Beach $1,162,500 +28.5% 32 +128.6%

All beach towns $688,750 +12.2% 433 +22.7%

Total O.C. $435,000 +16.0% 2,564 +5.7%

Source: Kelli Hart, OC Register, May, 2010

Will the Housing Market Rebound?

|  May 14, 2010  |    Share

When Will the Housing Market Rebound? 
All the signs are there for continued improvement in the economy as well as housing markets, but it will be several years before real estate practitioners can expect to see markets returning to equilibrium, two of the country's top economists told REALTORS® this week.

By the end of this year, practitioners should see 5.4 million existing-home sales and home price growth of up to 3 percent, said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

Already many markets are seeing home price increases, including San Diego, where prices are up some 16 percent. Orange County, Calif., and Boston are two other strong areas, with price increases of 10 percent to 12 percent, Yun said.

Did the Tax Credit Make a Difference? 

The federal home buyer tax credit has been essential for getting buyers back into the market, stabilizing inventories, and shoring up prices, Yun said. He estimated that the credit -- which is available to buyers who had properties under contract by April 30 and who close on their sale by June 30 -- brought more than 4 million households into the market since it was enacted about two years ago. That includes about 1 million who otherwise wouldn’t have bought. 

More fundamental to the improving housing picture is the increasing strength of the economy, which is on track to expand by 3.1 percent this year after shrinking 2.5 percent last year, Yun said. 

With inflation tame and interest rates low, businesses are enjoying robust profitability and their balance sheets are in the best position they’ve been in for years, said Mike Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Economy.com. That’s helping with employment, which about two months ago turned positive for the first time since the economic crisis began and is now seeing about 125,000 net jobs added a month, he said. 



Source: Realtor.com Magazine

Pending Home Sales on an Upswing

|  May 4, 2010  |   

Pending Home Sales on an Upswing 
Pending home sales increased again in March, affirming that a surge of home sales is unfolding for the spring home buying season, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in March, rose 5.3 percent to 102.9 from 97.7 in February, and is 21.1 percent above March 2009 when it was 85.0; this follows an 8.3 percent increase in February. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which usually occur with a lag time of one or two months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said favorable affordability conditions have been working with the tax credit. “Clearly the home buyer tax credit has helped stabilize the market. In the months immediately following the expiration of the tax credit, we expect measurably lower sales,” he said. “Later in the second half of the year, and into 2011, home sales will likely become self-sustaining if the economy can add jobs at a respectable pace, and from a return of buyer demand as they see home values stabilizing.”

Regional Numbers

• The PHSI in the Northeast declined 3.3 percent to 75.1 in March, but remains 27.2 percent higher than March 2009.
• In the Midwest the index increased 1.2 percent to 98.9 and is 18.5 percent above a year ago.
• Pending home sales in the South jumped 12.7 percent to an index of 121.2, which is 28.3 percent higher than March 2009.
• In the West the index rose 1.9 percent to 99.9 and is 8.8 percent above a year ago.

“Another encouraging sign is the improvement in the availability for jumbo and second-home mortgages,” Yun said. “As bank balance sheets strengthen, it is just a matter of time before lending of non-government-backed mortgages steadily opens up.”

Source: NAR