Pending Home Sales Continue Recovery
Pending home sales rose again in November, with the broad trend over the past five months indicating a gradual recovery into 2011, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® .
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator, rose 3.5 percent to 92.2 based on contracts signed in November from a downwardly revised 89.1 in October. The index is 5.0 percent below a reading of 97.0 in November 2009. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said historically high housing affordability is boosting sales activity. “In addition to exceptional affordability conditions, steady improvements in the economy are helping bring buyers into the market,” he said. “But further gains are needed to reach normal levels of sales activity.”
The PHSI in the Northeast increased 1.8 percent to 72.6 in November but is 6.2 percent below November 2009. In the Midwest the index declined 4.2 percent in November to 78.3 and is 7.7 percent below a year ago. Pending home sales in the South slipped 1.8 percent to an index of 91.4 and are 7.2 percent below November 2009. In the West the index jumped 18.2 percent to 123.3 and is 0.4 percent above a year ago.
“If we add 2 million jobs as expected in 2011, and mortgage rates rise only moderately, we should see existing-home sales rise to a higher, sustainable volume,” Yun said. “Credit remains tight, but if lenders return to more normal, safe underwriting standards for creditworthy buyers, there would be a bigger boost to the housing market and spillover benefits for the broader economy.”
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is forecast to rise gradually to 5.3 percent around the end of 2011; at the same time, unemployment should drop to 9.2 percent.
For perspective, Yun said that the U.S. has added 27 million people over the past 10 years. “However, the number of jobs is roughly the same as it was in 2000 when existing-home sales totaled 5.2 million, which appears to be a sustainable figure given the current level of employment,” he explained. “All the indicator trends are pointing to a gradual housing recovery,” Yun said. “Home price prospects will vary depending largely upon local job market conditions. The national median home price, however, is expected to remain stable even with a continuing flow of distressed properties coming onto the market, as long as there is a steady demand of financially healthy home buyers.”
Existing-home sales are projected to rise about 8 percent to 5.2 million in 2011 from 4.8 million in 2010, with an additional gain of 4 percent in 2012. The median existing-home price could rise 0.6 percent to $173,700 in 2011 from $172,700 in 2010, which was essentially unchanged from 2009.
“As we gradually work off the excess housing inventory, supply levels will eventually come more in-line with historic averages, and could allow home prices to rise modestly in the range of 2 to 3 percent in 2012,” Yun said.
New-home sales are estimated to rise 24 percent to 392,000 in 2011, but would remain well below historic averages, while housing starts are forecast to rise 21 percent to 716,000.
Yun sees Gross Domestic Product growing 2.5 percent in 2011, and the Consumer Price Index rising 2.3 percent.
Yun discusses the latest PHSI reading in a 5-minute video.
Source NAR, December, 2010
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Housing Starts Predicted to Hit 3-Year High
Housing Starts Predicted to Hit 3-Year High
Housing starts will probably reach a three-year high of 739,000 in 2011, creating about 500,000 jobs and helping trim the unemployment rate to 9.1 percent, said David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, in an interview with Bloomberg.
“This is an ugly economic cycle,” he said. “We need job creation to get people comfortable with buying a home. If they do that, we’ll create jobs that will reinforce that home buying and fuel additional job growth.”
Job growth in other sectors, as well as population growth, will also likely have an effect. The number of U.S. households will rise 0.7 percent to 118.7 million in 2011, the largest annual gain since the beginning of the housing crisis in 2007. Charles Lieberman, chief investment officer at Advisors Capital Management LLC in Hasbrouck Heights, N.J., expects jobs to rise by an average of 200,000 per month in 2011.
The CEO of luxury home builder Toll Brothers is optimistic. “The recovery is here to stay,” said Douglas Yearley. “I think 2011 will be an improving year, but I think 2012 will be a big year for us.”
Source: Bloomberg, Joshua Zumbrun and Kathleen M. Howley (12/28/2010)
Housing starts will probably reach a three-year high of 739,000 in 2011, creating about 500,000 jobs and helping trim the unemployment rate to 9.1 percent, said David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, in an interview with Bloomberg.
“This is an ugly economic cycle,” he said. “We need job creation to get people comfortable with buying a home. If they do that, we’ll create jobs that will reinforce that home buying and fuel additional job growth.”
Job growth in other sectors, as well as population growth, will also likely have an effect. The number of U.S. households will rise 0.7 percent to 118.7 million in 2011, the largest annual gain since the beginning of the housing crisis in 2007. Charles Lieberman, chief investment officer at Advisors Capital Management LLC in Hasbrouck Heights, N.J., expects jobs to rise by an average of 200,000 per month in 2011.
The CEO of luxury home builder Toll Brothers is optimistic. “The recovery is here to stay,” said Douglas Yearley. “I think 2011 will be an improving year, but I think 2012 will be a big year for us.”
Source: Bloomberg, Joshua Zumbrun and Kathleen M. Howley (12/28/2010)
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Predictions for Housing in 2011
Predictions for Housing in 2011
Will housing values increase in 2011? Fortune.com offers both a bullish and a bearish prediction.
The bulls say: Affordability is at its highest level. Billionaire Warren Buffet is among those who believe this is a sign the slump is about to end. Buffet writes: "Prices will remain far below 'bubble' levels, of course, but for every seller (or lender) hurt by this there will be a buyer who benefits."
The bears say: It’s not over yet. Housing is still overpriced and inventories are enormous, says Daryl Jones, an analyst at investment research firm Hedgeye. Jones warns that home prices could fall another 15 percent to 30 percent because no one is buying.
Source: Fortune.com, Nin-Hai Tseng (12/27/2010)
Will housing values increase in 2011? Fortune.com offers both a bullish and a bearish prediction.
The bulls say: Affordability is at its highest level. Billionaire Warren Buffet is among those who believe this is a sign the slump is about to end. Buffet writes: "Prices will remain far below 'bubble' levels, of course, but for every seller (or lender) hurt by this there will be a buyer who benefits."
The bears say: It’s not over yet. Housing is still overpriced and inventories are enormous, says Daryl Jones, an analyst at investment research firm Hedgeye. Jones warns that home prices could fall another 15 percent to 30 percent because no one is buying.
Source: Fortune.com, Nin-Hai Tseng (12/27/2010)
Monday, December 27, 2010
5 Reasons to Buy a Home in 2011
5 Reasons to Buy a Home in 2011
Michele Lerner, author of Homebuying: Tough Times, First Time, Any Time, offers reasons why real estate is likely to improve in 2011. Here are five reasons she thinks consumers should consider a home purchase next year:
▪ Mortgage rates will stay low. Even with rates climbing — maybe to as high as 6 percent by 2012 — they are still well below where they have been historically.
▪ Tax cuts could help. Extending the tax cuts could encourage a more rapid recovery for the economy.
▪ Americans want to be home owners. A recent Fannie Mae survey showed that Americans still believe a home is a safe and desirable investment.
▪ Builders are about to begin building. Home builders have been sitting on the sidelines. This year, they think pent-up demand will create an appetite for new homes.
▪ Homes are shrinking. Homes are getting smaller, which has made them more affordable.
Source: Investopedia, Michele Lerner (12/24/2010)
Michele Lerner, author of Homebuying: Tough Times, First Time, Any Time, offers reasons why real estate is likely to improve in 2011. Here are five reasons she thinks consumers should consider a home purchase next year:
▪ Mortgage rates will stay low. Even with rates climbing — maybe to as high as 6 percent by 2012 — they are still well below where they have been historically.
▪ Tax cuts could help. Extending the tax cuts could encourage a more rapid recovery for the economy.
▪ Americans want to be home owners. A recent Fannie Mae survey showed that Americans still believe a home is a safe and desirable investment.
▪ Builders are about to begin building. Home builders have been sitting on the sidelines. This year, they think pent-up demand will create an appetite for new homes.
▪ Homes are shrinking. Homes are getting smaller, which has made them more affordable.
Source: Investopedia, Michele Lerner (12/24/2010)
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Strong Rebound in Pending Home Sales
Strong Rebound in Pending Home Sales
Pending home sales jumped in October, showing a positive uptrend since bottoming in June, NAR says.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator, rose 10.4 percent to 89.3 based on contracts signed in October from 80.9 in September. The index remains 20.5 percent below a surge to a cyclical peak of 112.4 in October 2009, which was the highest level since May 2006 when it hit 112.6.
Last October, first-time buyers were motivated to make offers before the initial contract deadline for the tax credit last November. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said excellent housing affordability conditions are drawing home buyers. “It is welcoming to see a solid double-digit percentage gain, but activity needs to improve further to reach healthy, sustainable levels. The housing market clearly is in a recovery phase and will be uneven at times, but the improving job market and consequential boost to household formation will help the recovery process going into 2011,” he said.
“More importantly, a return to more normal loan underwriting standards and removal of unnecessary underwriting fees for very low risk borrowers is needed and could quickly help in the housing and economic recovery,” Yun said. Recent loan performance data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac clearly demonstrates very low default rates on recently originated mortgages, much lower that the vintages of 2002 and 2003 before the housing boom.
Near term, Yun expects home sales will continue to climb from their cyclical low this past summer. “Even so, we now have some consumer concerns regarding the mortgage interest deduction, an important component in housing affordability,” he said. “Preliminary results of a new survey show nearly three out of four home owners and two out of three renters consider the mortgage interest deduction to be extremely or very important to them. Home owners already pay between 80 and 90 percent of all federal income taxes and additional tax burden would hurt them and the economic recovery, so we have a reasonable hope that it will not be changed.”
Source: NAR, December 2, 2010
Pending home sales jumped in October, showing a positive uptrend since bottoming in June, NAR says.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator, rose 10.4 percent to 89.3 based on contracts signed in October from 80.9 in September. The index remains 20.5 percent below a surge to a cyclical peak of 112.4 in October 2009, which was the highest level since May 2006 when it hit 112.6.
Last October, first-time buyers were motivated to make offers before the initial contract deadline for the tax credit last November. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said excellent housing affordability conditions are drawing home buyers. “It is welcoming to see a solid double-digit percentage gain, but activity needs to improve further to reach healthy, sustainable levels. The housing market clearly is in a recovery phase and will be uneven at times, but the improving job market and consequential boost to household formation will help the recovery process going into 2011,” he said.
“More importantly, a return to more normal loan underwriting standards and removal of unnecessary underwriting fees for very low risk borrowers is needed and could quickly help in the housing and economic recovery,” Yun said. Recent loan performance data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac clearly demonstrates very low default rates on recently originated mortgages, much lower that the vintages of 2002 and 2003 before the housing boom.
Near term, Yun expects home sales will continue to climb from their cyclical low this past summer. “Even so, we now have some consumer concerns regarding the mortgage interest deduction, an important component in housing affordability,” he said. “Preliminary results of a new survey show nearly three out of four home owners and two out of three renters consider the mortgage interest deduction to be extremely or very important to them. Home owners already pay between 80 and 90 percent of all federal income taxes and additional tax burden would hurt them and the economic recovery, so we have a reasonable hope that it will not be changed.”
Source: NAR, December 2, 2010
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