Pending Home Sales Continue Recovery

Pending Home Sales Continue Recovery

Pending home sales rose again in November, with the broad trend over the past five months indicating a gradual recovery into 2011, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® .


The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator, rose 3.5 percent to 92.2 based on contracts signed in November from a downwardly revised 89.1 in October. The index is 5.0 percent below a reading of 97.0 in November 2009. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.


Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said historically high housing affordability is boosting sales activity. “In addition to exceptional affordability conditions, steady improvements in the economy are helping bring buyers into the market,” he said. “But further gains are needed to reach normal levels of sales activity.”


The PHSI in the Northeast increased 1.8 percent to 72.6 in November but is 6.2 percent below November 2009. In the Midwest the index declined 4.2 percent in November to 78.3 and is 7.7 percent below a year ago. Pending home sales in the South slipped 1.8 percent to an index of 91.4 and are 7.2 percent below November 2009. In the West the index jumped 18.2 percent to 123.3 and is 0.4 percent above a year ago.


“If we add 2 million jobs as expected in 2011, and mortgage rates rise only moderately, we should see existing-home sales rise to a higher, sustainable volume,” Yun said. “Credit remains tight, but if lenders return to more normal, safe underwriting standards for creditworthy buyers, there would be a bigger boost to the housing market and spillover benefits for the broader economy.”

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is forecast to rise gradually to 5.3 percent around the end of 2011; at the same time, unemployment should drop to 9.2 percent.


For perspective, Yun said that the U.S. has added 27 million people over the past 10 years. “However, the number of jobs is roughly the same as it was in 2000 when existing-home sales totaled 5.2 million, which appears to be a sustainable figure given the current level of employment,” he explained. “All the indicator trends are pointing to a gradual housing recovery,” Yun said. “Home price prospects will vary depending largely upon local job market conditions. The national median home price, however, is expected to remain stable even with a continuing flow of distressed properties coming onto the market, as long as there is a steady demand of financially healthy home buyers.”


Existing-home sales are projected to rise about 8 percent to 5.2 million in 2011 from 4.8 million in 2010, with an additional gain of 4 percent in 2012. The median existing-home price could rise 0.6 percent to $173,700 in 2011 from $172,700 in 2010, which was essentially unchanged from 2009.


“As we gradually work off the excess housing inventory, supply levels will eventually come more in-line with historic averages, and could allow home prices to rise modestly in the range of 2 to 3 percent in 2012,” Yun said.


New-home sales are estimated to rise 24 percent to 392,000 in 2011, but would remain well below historic averages, while housing starts are forecast to rise 21 percent to 716,000.


Yun sees Gross Domestic Product growing 2.5 percent in 2011, and the Consumer Price Index rising 2.3 percent.

Yun discusses the latest PHSI reading in a 5-minute video.
Source NAR, December, 2010

Housing Starts Predicted to Hit 3-Year High

Housing Starts Predicted to Hit 3-Year High

Housing starts will probably reach a three-year high of 739,000 in 2011, creating about 500,000 jobs and helping trim the unemployment rate to 9.1 percent, said David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, in an interview with Bloomberg.

“This is an ugly economic cycle,” he said. “We need job creation to get people comfortable with buying a home. If they do that, we’ll create jobs that will reinforce that home buying and fuel additional job growth.”

Job growth in other sectors, as well as population growth, will also likely have an effect. The number of U.S. households will rise 0.7 percent to 118.7 million in 2011, the largest annual gain since the beginning of the housing crisis in 2007. Charles Lieberman, chief investment officer at Advisors Capital Management LLC in Hasbrouck Heights, N.J., expects jobs to rise by an average of 200,000 per month in 2011.

The CEO of luxury home builder Toll Brothers is optimistic. “The recovery is here to stay,” said Douglas Yearley. “I think 2011 will be an improving year, but I think 2012 will be a big year for us.”

Source: Bloomberg, Joshua Zumbrun and Kathleen M. Howley (12/28/2010)

Predictions for Housing in 2011

Predictions for Housing in 2011



Will housing values increase in 2011? Fortune.com offers both a bullish and a bearish prediction.

The bulls say: Affordability is at its highest level. Billionaire Warren Buffet is among those who believe this is a sign the slump is about to end. Buffet writes: "Prices will remain far below 'bubble' levels, of course, but for every seller (or lender) hurt by this there will be a buyer who benefits."

The bears say: It’s not over yet. Housing is still overpriced and inventories are enormous, says Daryl Jones, an analyst at investment research firm Hedgeye. Jones warns that home prices could fall another 15 percent to 30 percent because no one is buying.

Source: Fortune.com, Nin-Hai Tseng (12/27/2010)

5 Reasons to Buy a Home in 2011

5 Reasons to Buy a Home in 2011


Michele Lerner, author of Homebuying: Tough Times, First Time, Any Time, offers reasons why real estate is likely to improve in 2011. Here are five reasons she thinks consumers should consider a home purchase next year:


▪ Mortgage rates will stay low. Even with rates climbing — maybe to as high as 6 percent by 2012 — they are still well below where they have been historically.


▪ Tax cuts could help. Extending the tax cuts could encourage a more rapid recovery for the economy.


▪ Americans want to be home owners. A recent Fannie Mae survey showed that Americans still believe a home is a safe and desirable investment.


▪ Builders are about to begin building. Home builders have been sitting on the sidelines. This year, they think pent-up demand will create an appetite for new homes.


▪ Homes are shrinking. Homes are getting smaller, which has made them more affordable.


Source: Investopedia, Michele Lerner (12/24/2010)

Strong Rebound in Pending Home Sales

Strong Rebound in Pending Home Sales


Pending home sales jumped in October, showing a positive uptrend since bottoming in June, NAR says.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator, rose 10.4 percent to 89.3 based on contracts signed in October from 80.9 in September. The index remains 20.5 percent below a surge to a cyclical peak of 112.4 in October 2009, which was the highest level since May 2006 when it hit 112.6.

Last October, first-time buyers were motivated to make offers before the initial contract deadline for the tax credit last November. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said excellent housing affordability conditions are drawing home buyers. “It is welcoming to see a solid double-digit percentage gain, but activity needs to improve further to reach healthy, sustainable levels. The housing market clearly is in a recovery phase and will be uneven at times, but the improving job market and consequential boost to household formation will help the recovery process going into 2011,” he said.

“More importantly, a return to more normal loan underwriting standards and removal of unnecessary underwriting fees for very low risk borrowers is needed and could quickly help in the housing and economic recovery,” Yun said. Recent loan performance data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac clearly demonstrates very low default rates on recently originated mortgages, much lower that the vintages of 2002 and 2003 before the housing boom.

Near term, Yun expects home sales will continue to climb from their cyclical low this past summer. “Even so, we now have some consumer concerns regarding the mortgage interest deduction, an important component in housing affordability,” he said. “Preliminary results of a new survey show nearly three out of four home owners and two out of three renters consider the mortgage interest deduction to be extremely or very important to them. Home owners already pay between 80 and 90 percent of all federal income taxes and additional tax burden would hurt them and the economic recovery, so we have a reasonable hope that it will not be changed.”

Source: NAR, December 2, 2010

Time is Right to Buy a Retirement Home

Please pass on this information to a retiring friend.

Time Is Right to Buy a Retirement Home



Money Magazine is urging people a few years from retirement who plan to move when they quit work to consider buying now while home prices and mortgage rates are low.



Buyers who intend to use the place as a second home will pay the same rate as they would pay for a primary residence. If they intend to rent the property out until they retire and they need the rental income to qualify for the mortgage, lenders will consider that an investment property and charge a half to a full percentage point more.

Still, the idea remains are "pretty compelling," says Justin Krane, a certified financial planner in Los Angeles.

Source: Money Magazine, Sarah Max (11/02/2010)

Home Prices Stabilizing in Key Markets

Home Prices Stabilizing in Key Markets


ZipRealty says in its third quarter report that homes in key markets all over the country are selling above the asking price.

The report shows that the spread between the sales-to-list price ratio lessened significantly in most markets, but high-end housing markets in many areas continued to offer great bargains for buyers.

The 10 hottest ZIP codes in the ZipRealty markets where the selling prices was greater than the asking price were:

1. Greater Grand Crossing – Chicago, Ill. (60619)

2. Oakland, Calif. (94603)

3. The Loop – Chicago, Ill. (60603)

4. Excelsior – San Francisco, Calif. (94112)

5. Fort Lauderdale, Fla. (33309)

6. San Bernardino, Calif. (92411)

7. Oakland, Calif. (94621)

8. Covington, Wash. (98042)

9. Berkeley, Calif. (94702)

10. North Las Vegas, Nev. (89030).

The coldest ZIPs, where selling prices were below asking, were:

1. Statesville, N.C. (28677)

2. Singer Island, Fla. (33404)

3. Philadelphia, Pa. (19140)

4. Boca Raton, Fla. (33434)

5. Jacksonville, Fla. (32206)

6. Chester, Pa. (19013)

7. Naples, Fla. (34102)

8. Palm Beach, Fla. (33480)

9. Reading, Pa. (19602)

10. Durham, N.C. (27703)

Source: Zip Realty, 10/26/10

30-Year Mortgage Rates Plumb New Depths

30-Year Mortgage Rates Plumb New Depths


Freddie Mac reports that the average interest on 30-year fixed mortgages slipped to an all-time low, for the third consecutive week, to 4.19 percent.

At the same time, 15-year fixed-rate loans and the five-year adjustable-mortgage rate both also hit record lows. Rates on the former were 3.62 percent, while the latter averaged just 3.47 percent.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Nathan Becker (10/15/10)

PS: If you need a name and number of one of the best mortgage brokers, please call me at 949-275-5900

Housing Recovery Predicted for Early 2012

Housing Recovery Predicted for Early 2012


The Concord Group real estate strategy firm predicts that with 18 months worth of housing inventory on the market, it will take until the first quarter of 2012 for demand for new homes to equal what it was in 2000.

Concord Group calculates that new home sales in 2010 were 70 percent below peak demand in 2005 and at the lowest point since 1963.

Concord says these regions have the strongest long-term growth potential:
· Orange County, Calif.
· San Jose, Calif.
· Seattle
· Washington, D.C.

Source: The Concord Group (10/12/2010)

The Dow Notches Its Best September in 71 Years

The Dow Notches Its Best September in 71 Years 

  The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) recorded its best September in more than 70 years, which is historically a tough month for the market. 

Stocks started Thursday's session with gains, helped by a drop in weekly initial jobless claims, as well as better readings on second-quarter gross domestic product and regional manufacturing. 

The economy made some modest progress on the labor front last week, as the number of new jobless claims filed fell 16,000 to 453,000, the U.S. Labor Department said Thursday, while economists on average expected claims to come in at 459,000. A better-than-expected revised reading on second-quarter GDP and  surprise jump in the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index also conspired to give equities and early lift. 

Source: Economy, Investing, Market News, Financial Times, Dan Burrows, 9/30/2010

Experts Report that Great Recession ended June 2009

The National Bureau of Economic Research, the arbiter of when recessions begin and end, has reported that the Great Recession ended June 2009.

In a report released Monday, the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee said it "determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted 16 months."

NBER also explained why a decision took so long. "The committee waited to make its decision until revisions in the National Income and Product Accounts, released on July 30 and August 27, 2010, clarified the 2009 time path of the two broadest measures of economic activity, real Gross Domestic Product (real GDP) and real Gross Domestic Income (real GDI)." In other words, there was no need to call an end to the downturn until it was clear that a meaningful recovery had begun.

Source: Daily Finance, September 20, 2010

10 Reasons to Buy a Home

10 Reasons to Buy a Home


Time magazine is being overly pessimistic in its recent cover piece that called into question the benefits of homeownership. In fact, now is a great time to buy. And, what's more, tomorrow will be a great time to own, because the fundamental strength of homeownership hasn't changed.

Why is now a great time to buy? Here are 10 reasons:

1. You can get a good deal. Prices are down 30 percent on average. They're at a level that makes sense for people's income.
2. Mortgages are cheap. At 4.3 percent on average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, your costs to own are down by a fifth from two years ago.
3. You can save on taxes. When you add up the deductions for mortgage interest and others, the cost of owning can drop below renting for a comparable place.
4. It'll be yours. The one benefit to owning that never changes is that you can paint your walls orange if you want (generally speaking; there might be some community restrictions). How many landlords will let you do that?
5. You can get a better home.In some markets, it's simply the case that the nicest places are for-sale homes and condos.
6. It offers some inflation protection. Historically, appreciation over time outpaces inflation.
7. It's risk capital. If the economy picks up, you stand to benefit from that, even if you're goal is just to have a nice place to live.
8. It's forced savings. A part of your payment each month goes to equity.
9. There is a lot to choose from.,There are some 4 million homes available today, about a year's supply. Now's the time to find something you like and get it.
10.,Sooner or later the market will clear. The U.S. is expected to grow by another 100 million people in 40 years. They have to live somewhere. Demand will eventually outpace supply.

Source: Wall Street Journal, Brett Arends (9/16/10)

People@Work: More Signs Emerge of a Better Job Market Ahead

People@Work: More Signs Emerge of a Better Job Market Ahead

...The Fewest Layoffs Since June 2000

First, there was last week's Labor Department report that showed initial claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell by 27,000 to 451,000. The four-week moving average, a more-telling barometer, also declined 9,250 to 477,500, while continuing claims dropped 2,000 to 4.48 million.

Then, earlier this month, another indicator showed that employed Americans can feel more secure that they will keep their jobs. The number of announced layoffs fell to the lowest monthly total in more than a decade in August, according to a report by employment-services firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

At just under 35,000, August job cuts fell 17% from the 41,676 cuts announced in July, marking the first decline following three consecutive months of increases, Chicago-based Challenger said. August not only replaced April as the lowest job-cut month of the year, it represents the lowest since June 2000, when employers announced only 17,241 planned layoffs.
Hiring Is Up Across All Sectors

The lack of massive culls of workers from nation's largest firms is another positive indicator that the U.S. job market may finally be headed in the right direction. Gone are the epic cuts announced in 2008 and 2009, when Citigroup (C), General Motors, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) and Starbucks (SBUX) each cut tens of thousands of jobs.

Further, as U.S. News & World Report points out, every major employment sector is hiring, according to a sampling by job search engine Indeed.com. In the 12 industries Indeed.com monitors, hiring rose significantly in August compared to a year ago. The biggest surge was in transportation, where job postings jumped 119%, but information technology, manufacturing and media and newspapers also saw strong gains, up at least 61% above year-ago levels.

Then there's one other quirky nugget of information dug up by Challenger: Sales of men's suits are on the rise. Citing better-than-expected quarterly earnings at Men's Wearhouse (MW), Challenger says increased suit sales may mean more people -- men, at least -- are going on interviews. Although, the firm says there was no indication from the Houston-based retailer for the reason behind the sales boost.

After years of a trend toward more casual dress in the workplace, Challenger CEO John Challenger says many job seekers simply don't own a suit that fits or is in fashion. "So, they are heading out to restock their suit collections."

Whether suit sales or any other barometer can predict an uptick in the job market is anyone's guess. But one thing is for sure: with 8 million jobs lost since the start of the recession in December 2007, many more months of promising data are needed before everyone looking for job can finally find one.

Tagged: challenger, Challenger Gray Christmas, employee, employees, employer, employers, employment, employment opportunities, initial claims, job market, job search

By DAVID SCHEPP, Public Finance, 9/13/2010

Buffett Sees No Double-Dip Recession in U.S.

Buffett Sees No Double-Dip Recession in U.S.


Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) CEO Warren Buffett said a second, near-term recession in the U.S. is unlikely and said his companies have boosted hiring over the past couple of months, Bloomberg News reported.


Buffett said the U.S. economy "will not have a double-dip recession at all," the wire service reported, citing Buffett's remarks during a keynote speech at the Montana Economic Development Summit earlier Monday.


The billionaire investor, whose company is Wells Fargo & Co.'s (WFC) largest shareholder, cited U.S. banks' growing willingness to lend to small businesses as illustrative of an economy on the mend, Bloomberg reported. Buffett called the lending situation "night and day from a year, year and a half ago," according to Bloomberg.


The Berkshire chief was listed this year by Forbes as the world's third-wealthiest person, whose $47 billion net worth trails only that of Carlos Slim Helu and Bill Gates.

by Danny King, Daily Finance, Wells Fargo & Co., 9/13/2010

Laguna's Beaches Among the Cleanest in the US

Again, Laguna Beach's beaches are considered among the cleanest in the U.S. in 2009 according to the Natural Resources Defense Council. Laguna's beaches received the most five-star ratings of any beach in Orange County (OC).The beach that is an exception in Laguna, as many of you know, is the contaminated beach at Aliso Beach, which is owned by Orange County. Beaches not involved in the studies were Crystal Cove, Thousand Steps and Three Arch Bay.

Source: 20th Annual Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) Report, July 2009

22 Cities at Risk for Another Recession but Not in California

22 Cities at Risk for Another Recession but Not California

At least 22 U.S. cities are at risk of slipping back into recession, Moody’s Economy.com said in a report Tuesday.
"With chances of a national double-dip recession now estimated at about one in four, several metro areas will probably experience their own downturns in the first half of 2011," said economist Andrew Gledhill, who wrote the report.
Gledhill identified these 22 markets as having the biggest chance of a double-dip recession, mostly because they have industrial economies that are affected by the national decline in manufacturing:
1. Missoula, Mont.
2. Salem, Ore.
3. Idaho Falls, Idaho
4. Lake County-Kenosha County, Ill.-Wisc.
5. Lafayette, Ind.
6. Wichita, Kan.
7. Hot Springs, Ark.
8. Pine Bluff, Ark.
9. Little Rock, Ark.
10. Wichita Falls, Texas
11. Akron, Ohio
12. Charleston, W.Va.
13. Macon, Ga.
14. Gadsden, Ala.
15. Gulfport-Biloxi, Miss.
16. Mobile, Ala.
17. Utica-Rome, N.Y.
18. Lebanon, Pa.
19. Springfield, Ohio
20. Wilmington, N.C.
21. Anderson, S.C.
22. Athens-Clark County Ga.

Source: CNNMoney.com, Hibah Yousuf (08/17/2010)

Sale Prices in Laguna Beach and Orange County Continue to Go Up

Data Quick, the most reliable source of real estate sales in Laguna Beach and Orange County, is reporting that for July, 2010 prices in Laguna Beach went up 17.0% and for Orange County the prices went up 7.1%. Although sales volume was down due to the expiration of the federal tax credit, sale prices were up.

The July median sale prices for Los Angeles, San Diego and Riverside counties were also up over July, 2009 with median sale prices in July, 2010 averaging a 10.1% increase in SoCal.

Source: Data Quick, August, 2010

Short-Term Refis Can Save Big Money

Shorter-Term Refis Can Save Big Money


Shorter-term loans are gaining favor as rates continue to fall.

On average at today’s rates, a borrower refinancing their 6.5 percent loan would save $70,000 over the life of a $200,000 20-year loan vs. a 30-year loan.

These kinds of refinances are particularly popular among people who are approaching retirement, said Peter Iche, president of Carthage Federal Savings and Loan Association in Carthage, N.Y.

Source: USA Today, Stephanie Armour (08/16/2010)

Check with Rick Cirelli at RTCMortgage.com for details

Great Time for Housing Deals

Great Time for Housing Deals


Paying off an underwater mortgage and buying a better home could be the best tactic in this troubled market.

"If you are trading up, what better time than when interest rates are at record lows and the cost of the trade-up is much less than it used to be?" says Christopher J. Mayer, a Columbia Business School economist.

With 15-year fixed-rate mortgages at about 4.5 percent, it also makes sense to pay off the mortgage and keep the house. "At this point," says Jay Brinkmann, chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association in Washington, D.C., "if they don't have anything else that is bringing a tremendous return, then they are buying themselves an annuity by paying their house off sooner than they needed to."

Source: The Wall Street Journal, M.P. McQueen (07/24/2010)

National Housing News

July 14, 2010
National Home Prices Continue Gains Over 2009

U.S. home prices, including distressed sales, increased by 2.9 percent compared to the same month last year, according to CoreLogic in its monthly index.

May was the fourth straight month prices showed a year-over-year increase.

"Home price appreciation stabilized as home buyer tax credit-driven sales peaked in late spring," says Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. "But given that the labor market and income growth remain tepid, we expect prices to moderate and possibly decline the rest of the year."

Source: CoreLogic (07/13/2010)

Very Good News for LB and OC

June Prices in Laguna Beach Go Up

June prices in Laguna Beach went up to $1.213M and sale volume when up 10.8% as compared to the same month in 2009. Orange County prices went up 6.5% and sale volume increased 15.7% when over 3400 homes sold in June. These statistics are from DataQuick, regarded as the most accurate source, because they only look at actual recordings in OC.


Furthermore, Moody's Economy.com Chief Econmist Mark Zandi is predicting a slightly stronger demand for housing into 2011.


Do You Like to Walk?
According to www.ceosforcities.org, walking is a great way to maintain a healthy life style and a city's walkability contributes to increased home values.  

The authors of the study stated that, "Homes in more walkable neighborhoods are worth more than similar homes in less-walkable neighborhoods..."

Tax Credit Deadline Extended; Flood Insurance Program Reinstated

Date: July 1, 2010

Re: Tax Credit Deadline Extended; Flood Insurance Program Reinstated

Rick Cirelli and I would like to pass on the following announcement from NAR
We are happy to report that Congress has passed a bill extending the Homebuyer Tax Credit closing deadline to September 30, 2010. This is a huge win for... homebuyers, and NAR worked closely with members of Congress to make it happen.

The extension applies only to transactions that had ratified contracts in place as of April 30, 2010, and have not yet closed. There will be no gap between June 30 and the date the President signs the bill into law.

Additionally, Congress has extended the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) through September 30th. The bill is retroactive and will cover the lapse period from June 1, 2010, to the date the law is enacted. NAR will continue to work with Congress on the NFIP Reform bill, and we will keep you posted on those efforts. Be sure to consult with your tax consultant.

Source: National Association of Realtors (NAR), July 1, 2010

Southern California median home price surges 22.5%

June 16 2010

The Southland's housing market surged in May with the median home price soaring 22.5% from its year-earlier level as tax incentives for buyers and rock-bottom interest rates ignited sales, a real estate research firm reported Tuesday. Sales volume in Laguna Beach was up 53.6% compared to May, 2009.
The only counties in  which sales volume was down occurred in Riverside and San Bernardino.
By Alejandro Lazo, Los Angeles Times

Fiserv Study Says Markets Are Improving

Fiserv on Monday released a report that analyzed housing financial data from fourth quarter 2009, which seemed to suggest real estate could be improving.

“Optimism that a sustainable economic recovery is underway and is driving increases in home prices across many U.S. metro areas. More and more, consumers have confidence that buying a home doesn’t mean catching a falling knife,” says David Stiff, chief economist for global financial technology firm Fiserv.
Among the conclusions of the report were:

California markets collapsed about one year before much of the rest of the U.S., creating increased affordability. Year-over-year prices are up in eight of 28 California metro areas and prices have increased from recent lows in 24 of 28 metro areas. The strongest rebounds were in coastal markets, including the Bay Area, Los Angeles, Orange County, and San Diego, where there are decreasing levels of foreclosed homes. Markets in the interior have also experienced a price bounce, mainly due to strong investor demand.

Source: Fiserv (6-10-2010)

Economists Forecast Growth Through 2011

June 11, 2010

Survey: Economists Forecast Growth


Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecast slow but steady economic growth through the middle of 2011.

The key to economic growth will be increased employment, but economists say that the decrease in joblessness will be slow, falling from an employment rate of 9.7 percent now to 8.6 percent by the end of December 2011.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, speaking to the U.S. House Budget Committee, wouldn’t deny the possibility of a double-dip recession, but he said that it appears to the Fed that “the recovery has made an important transition from being supported primarily by inventory dynamics and by fiscal policy toward a recovery being led more by private final demand."

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Phil Izzo (06/09/2010)

Home Prices Could Rise 12.4 Percent by 2014

May 19, 2010
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Housing Prices Could Rise 12.4 Percent by 2014

Housing prices are expected to increase 12.4 percent between 2010 and the end of 2014, predicts MacroMarkets, which surveyed more than 100 analysts and market strategists.

Those interviewed didn’t all see the housing market in the same light. Joseph LaVorgna, a economist at Deutsche Bank predicts that home prices will rise 37 percent by the end of 2014.

On the most bearish end, both Anthony Sanders, professor of real estate finance at George Mason University, and investment adviser Gary Shilling, president of A.Gary Shilling & Co., expect prices will decline 18 percent.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, James R. Hagerty (05/19/2010)

Fed Researchers Predict Speedy Economic Recovery

Fed Researchers Predict Speedy Economic Recovery 
The U.S. economy is likely to recover more quickly after this recession than it did after the previous two recessions, predicts researchers for the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

"I see no signs of a double dip," said John C. Williams, director of research at the San Francisco Fed. "The economy continues to gain momentum, and consumer spending and business investment continue to improve."

The prediction goes counter to what many analysts believe, but Williams pointed to surveys that show home, car, and retail sales are up. "It's kind of a natural part of the process — you cut back for a couple of years, and then you need to replace things eventually," Williams said.

Source: Los Angeles Times, Alana Semuels (05/18/2010)

Laguna Beach Homebuying up 129% over year

Laguna Beach homebuying up 129% over year


For the 22 business days ending April 27 – DataQuick’s freshest stats — Laguna Beach homebuying patterns showed:

Homebuying +129% vs. a year ago.

Laguna Beach’s median selling price was $1,162,500 – that’s +167% vs. countywide pricing.

A year ago, that Laguna Beach home-price “premium” was 141% vs. the countywide median selling price.

For a detailed report on countywide price moves,call Gil Thibault at 949-275-5900

Here’s a look at how Laguna Beach compares to all Orange County beach town trends and countywide totals for homebuying and median selling prices:

Town Median price Year’s chg. Sales Year’s chg.

Laguna Beach $1,162,500 +28.5% 32 +128.6%

All beach towns $688,750 +12.2% 433 +22.7%

Total O.C. $435,000 +16.0% 2,564 +5.7%

Source: Kelli Hart, OC Register, May, 2010

Will the Housing Market Rebound?

|  May 14, 2010  |    Share

When Will the Housing Market Rebound? 
All the signs are there for continued improvement in the economy as well as housing markets, but it will be several years before real estate practitioners can expect to see markets returning to equilibrium, two of the country's top economists told REALTORS® this week.

By the end of this year, practitioners should see 5.4 million existing-home sales and home price growth of up to 3 percent, said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

Already many markets are seeing home price increases, including San Diego, where prices are up some 16 percent. Orange County, Calif., and Boston are two other strong areas, with price increases of 10 percent to 12 percent, Yun said.

Did the Tax Credit Make a Difference? 

The federal home buyer tax credit has been essential for getting buyers back into the market, stabilizing inventories, and shoring up prices, Yun said. He estimated that the credit -- which is available to buyers who had properties under contract by April 30 and who close on their sale by June 30 -- brought more than 4 million households into the market since it was enacted about two years ago. That includes about 1 million who otherwise wouldn’t have bought. 

More fundamental to the improving housing picture is the increasing strength of the economy, which is on track to expand by 3.1 percent this year after shrinking 2.5 percent last year, Yun said. 

With inflation tame and interest rates low, businesses are enjoying robust profitability and their balance sheets are in the best position they’ve been in for years, said Mike Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Economy.com. That’s helping with employment, which about two months ago turned positive for the first time since the economic crisis began and is now seeing about 125,000 net jobs added a month, he said. 



Source: Realtor.com Magazine

Pending Home Sales on an Upswing

|  May 4, 2010  |   

Pending Home Sales on an Upswing 
Pending home sales increased again in March, affirming that a surge of home sales is unfolding for the spring home buying season, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in March, rose 5.3 percent to 102.9 from 97.7 in February, and is 21.1 percent above March 2009 when it was 85.0; this follows an 8.3 percent increase in February. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which usually occur with a lag time of one or two months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said favorable affordability conditions have been working with the tax credit. “Clearly the home buyer tax credit has helped stabilize the market. In the months immediately following the expiration of the tax credit, we expect measurably lower sales,” he said. “Later in the second half of the year, and into 2011, home sales will likely become self-sustaining if the economy can add jobs at a respectable pace, and from a return of buyer demand as they see home values stabilizing.”

Regional Numbers

• The PHSI in the Northeast declined 3.3 percent to 75.1 in March, but remains 27.2 percent higher than March 2009.
• In the Midwest the index increased 1.2 percent to 98.9 and is 18.5 percent above a year ago.
• Pending home sales in the South jumped 12.7 percent to an index of 121.2, which is 28.3 percent higher than March 2009.
• In the West the index rose 1.9 percent to 99.9 and is 8.8 percent above a year ago.

“Another encouraging sign is the improvement in the availability for jumbo and second-home mortgages,” Yun said. “As bank balance sheets strengthen, it is just a matter of time before lending of non-government-backed mortgages steadily opens up.”

Source: NAR

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Commercial Market Is Looking Up

Despite the rising number of defaults, the commercial real estate market is improving.

Prices are up. Commercial real estate values have risen 6 percent in recent months, according to Real Capital Analytics.

Nearly $14 billion in loans were modified in the last six months.

Investors also have been aggressively buying commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). Research firm Trepp predicts that $25 billion in CMBS will be issued in 2010.
Source: USA Today, Paul Davidson (04/20/2010)

Number of Delinquent Mortgages Declines

The number of delinquent mortgages declined 8.6 percent in March, says LPS Applied Analytics, which tracks the performance of loans for investors. Totals also declined in February.

The biggest decline was in loans more than 30 days past due, which are now at about the same level as they were in spring 2008.

"We're not out of the woods, but this appears to be a turning point," says LPS Applied Analytics President Ted Jadlos. "This is the first time we've seen improvement across all stages of mortgage delinquency."

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Ruth Simon (04/19/2010)

Home Prices, Sales Rise in Laguna Beach and Orange County

Home prices and home sales rise in Laguna Beach and Orange County 

Home prices in Laguna Beach increased by 5.0% in March to a median sale price of $1.125M,  and sales volume increased 62.5%.

Orange County home prices jumped 12 per cent last month and sales climbed about one-third over February levels. The median price of homes rose to $432,000 in March and higher prices were were seen thoughout the county, according to MDA Data Quick's report and the OC Register. Beach cities zip codes had both the biggest price and sales gains. Investors appetite for rental properties appeared to be strong and fewer homes entered the foreclosure pipeline.

Source: MDA Data Quick and OC Register, April 14, 2010

Pending Home Sales Show Healthy Gain

April 5, 2010
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Pending Home Sales Show Healthy Gain

 Pending home sales rose in February, potentially signaling a second surge of home sales in response to the home buyer tax credit, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.



The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in February, rose 8.2 percent to 97.6 from a downwardly revised 90.2 in January, and remains 17.3 percent above February 2009 when it was 83.2. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which usually occur with a lag time of one or two months.



Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the improvement is another hopeful sign. “The rise in buyer contact activity may signal the early stages of a second surge of home sales this spring. The healthy gain hints home prices are continuing to flatten,” he says. “We need a second surge to meaningfully draw down inventory and definitively stabilize home values.”



Pending home sales by region:



Northeast: the index rose 9.0 percent to 77.7 in February and is 18.9 percent higher than February 2009.


Midwest: jumped 21.8 percent to 97.9 and is 18.7 percent above a year ago.


South: increased 9.2 percent to an index of 107.0, and the index is 17.5 percent higher than February 2009.


West: the index fell 4.8 percent to 98.0 but is 14.6 percent above a year ago.



Source: NAR, April, 2010

Markets Where Home Prices Could Rise Most according to Money Magazine

March 23, 2010
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Markets Where Home Prices Could Rise Most


Money Magazine has released its latest home-price projections for the country’s largest metropolitan areas. Here are the 10 cities where it believes home prices will rise the most in the next year, and the 10 where it foresees the most substantial declines:



Where prices will rise:



• Santa Rosa, Calif., 6.0 percent

• Cheyenne, Wyo., 4.7 percent

• Kennewick, Wash., 4.6 percent

• Merced, Calif., 4.4 percent

• Bremerton, Wash., 4.2 percent

• Fairbanks, Alaska, 4.2 percent

• Corvallis, Ore., 4.1 percent

• Tacoma, Wash., 3.9 percent

• Anchorage, Alaska, 3.8 percent

• Bend, Ore., 3.3 percent



Where prices will decline:



• Miami, -22.5 percent

• Fort Lauderdale, Fla., -21.3 percent

• West Palm Beach, Fla., -18.5 percent

• Phoenix, -18.5 percent

• Las Vegas, -15.4 percent

• Tampa, -13.8 percent

• Pensacola, Fla., -13.6 percent

• Gainesville, Fla., -13.4 percent

• Suffolk, N.Y., -13.4 percent

• New York City, -12.9 percent



Source: Money Magazine (03/20/20

Laguna's Median Home Selling Price Up 23%

For the calendar month of February, 2010, Laguna Beach homes showed an increase in median sale price of 23% and sale volume was up over 150%. Laguna's median sale price was $1.6M as compared to all other beach towns where the median sale price was up 0.7% at $690K.Orange County's median sale price was up at $417K, an increase of 11%.
(Median sale price means that half of the sales occurred above the median and half of the sales occurred below the median.)

Source: OC Register, Kelli Hart, 3/16/2010

Housing Experts Say Real Estate is Recovering

March 15, 2010
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Housing Experts Say Real Estate is Recovering

Some of the nation’s top economists believe the housing market has turned and better days are on the way for the housing industry.

Increases in jobs, credit, and affordable homes will overcome impediments such as rising interest rates, and the expiration of the Federal stimulus program to push the housing market toward recovery, says Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist for Barclays Capital.

“I would bet even odds that we’re at a bottom and that we’re going to see improvement in the coming months,” says Karl Case, co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and a professor of economics at Wellesley College.

“The underlying trend is turning positive,” says Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Source: Bloomberg, Kathleen M. Howley and Rich Miller (03/15/2010)

Again, Builders Say Business Is on the Upswing

March 15, 2010
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Builders Say Business Is on the Upswing

The spring selling season is already keeping builders busy, says Ticonderoga Securities Analyst Stephen East, who surveyed builders in North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Texas, and California’s Inland Empire.

East found that many builders reported increasing interest among move-up buyers. Builders also said that traffic was not only busy on the weekends, but was also increasing mid-week.

“While the market is benefiting from the tax credit, it is also showing distinct signs of normalizing,” East wrote in a client note.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Dawn Wotapka (03/12/2010)

O.C. execs see turnaround coming

O.C. execs see turnaround coming


January 28th, 2010, 1:44 pm · 8 Comments · posted by Mary Ann Milbourn, OC Register

Four Orange County executives representing banking, fast food, high tech and housing said today that they had retrenched during the recession but have positioned themselves for a turnaround which they expect this year.
Paul Folino, executive chairman of Emulex Corp., the computer storage networking company in Costa Mesa, summed up the stories of all four panelists.

"You have to retrench, get a new business model and hunker down," he told about 160 breakfast guests of Cal State Fullerton's Mahaylo College of Business and Economics. "But what you (also) do need to do is prepare to win, to prepare for success so you don't end up being in the bleachers and unable to be in the game (when it's over)."

The panel, the first of a series by the business school, focused on "The new landscape of Orange County." The speakers were asked to discuss how their companies survived the recession and their expectations for the future.
Joining Folino on the panel were:
•Dan Young, president of The Irvine Co.'s Irvine Community Development Company LLC
•Glenn Gray, president of Sunwest Bank,
•Bill Sanderson, president of fast-food service company Golden State Service Industries, Irvine.
Here are their company stories:
Folino said that during the worst of the recession, Emulex's revenues were down 20% to 25%.
Last month, however, the company, which serves IBM, Hewlett Packard and Dell, reported its first quarter over quarter growth in two years. Folino sees bright prospects for the entire high tech sector this year, barring a double-dip recession.
"Tech will help lead the way out of this recession," he said.
Although the banking industry has had it's issues "like a total meltdown," as Sunwest Bank's Gray put it, he was optimistic.
He noted federal regulators continue to have a list of between 522 and 1,200 banks that are financially troubled and may fail.
"The good news is most of them are not going to be in Orange County," Gray said. "Orange County actually looks pretty healthy right now."
As for Sunwest, he said the 40-year-old bank had its best year ever last year and has doubled in size to 10 branches. It is now the third-largest California-based bank.
His advice: "If you keep your powder dry and don't do a lot of stupid things — like subprime loans — you'll be able to take advantage. I actually do see a bit of a turnaround this year."
Golden State Foods, which is a supplier to McDonald's and other fast food businesses, actually has benefited from the downturn as the public traded down to less expensive food outlets.
The company added 100 people to its liquids business operations in Vernon and is growing a new business to supply Starbucks.
"We see the recession as an opportunity," Sanderson said. "Some of our competitors in some business segments stepped away from their knitting and pared down. We've very active in the market for strategic acquisitions."
The Irvine Co. used the dark days of what Young described as "the housing depression" to study the market to determine what would be the next trend in home buying, then decided to get out in front of that market.
"It's been about as bad as it can get, " Young said, "But we are going to step out in this market."
The company is opening 21 new model homes this weekend — the biggest, Young said, since 2005 — and already has 600 buyers prequalified for loans.
Anil Puri, dean of the Mihaylo College, said all four companies taught an important lesson for businesses:
"Innovation is the key to growth."

Southern CA Prices May Increase 10% in 2010

1/16/2010, OC Register, Jonathan Lansner and Jeff Collins

Southern California Rising in 2010

Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, said he wouldn't be surprised if Southern California home prices increased as much as 10% this year--a departure from his earlier predictions that prices would increase in the 3% to 5% range...."I do anticipate job creation to come around in the later half of 2010..." Asked to comment on UCLA's forecast that Orange Count home prices would rise 16% this year, Yun once said that it was "bubblish" but now, "if it were to happen anywhere in the country, it would be in Southern California."

Positive News about New Homes

Irvine: 400 buyers lined up for new project


January 18th, 2010 · OC Register· posted by Jeff Collins

The Irvine Co. announced that it now has enough buyers approved to buy nearly two-thirds of the homes planned for new developments being launched later this month in north Irvine’s Woodbury and Woodbury East neighborhoods.

Four hundred interested home shoppers have gone through an approval process with lenders and received qualification letters, said Dan Young, president of the Irvine Co.’s residential development arm.

New Home Co.

“Of the (700) homes we’re going to build and haven’t opened yet, we have 400 qualified buyers,” Young told a Building Industry Association dinner last week. “So, folks, we’re back.”

The Irvine Co. revealed plans for its 2010 New Home Collection a year ago using designs developed from extensive new marketing research …

Twenty-one model homes have been built. The project offers home shoppers 25 floor plans that feature such new concepts as “California rooms” to bring the outdoors in, while large kitchens and great rooms are combined into entertainment areas.

The land developer hired six builders to construct homes in eight projects.
Rather than sell the land to the builders, who normally would then build the homes and sell them to consumers, the Irvine Co. will retain ownership of the homes until they are sold to consumers and pay the builders fees.

Young reportedly was on hand last weekend when more than 200 potential bidders showed up for an auction of eight left-over homes from a failed development launched two years ago. “(Young) was very impressed by the process and appreciative of the prices achieved,” said Taylor Grant, a court-appointed receiver

Builders Moving Toward Better Times

Daily Real Estate News
January 14, 2010
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Builders Moving Toward Better Times

Lots of signs point to a recovery in the construction industry.

With help from a federal tax break, both Lennar Corp. and KB Home posted fourth-quarter profits – the first time since 2007 that either has been in the black.

KB Home CEO Jeffrey Mezger said in a statement: "There are indications that housing market conditions may be stabilizing in some regions, reflecting, among other things, relatively high levels of affordability.”

Other signs that things are getting better:

Residential investment increased 18.9 percent in the third quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis compared with the second quarter, according to the U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. It was the first increase in residential investment since the fourth quarter of 2005, the government said.
Both KB Home and Lennar are buying land.
As sales increase, both have reduced incentives they have been offering buyers.

Mezger says KB is increasing prices.

Source: The Los Angeles Times, Alejandro Lazo (01/13/2010)